Societe Generale’s Global Chief Economist pointed out that the Covid-19 pandemic gave the world the ‘greatest recession in living memory’ and that while countries have, to varying degrees, surpassed their level of GDP in Q4 2019, this was in fact a ‘very superficial’ success.

‘GDP relative to the potential growth rate does not look nearly as good,’ he said.

The future trajectory of disinflation may be harder to predict, particularly given the recent contraction experienced by some leading economies. He pointed out that the gap between headline and core inflation has been greatly reduced, in some cases even turning negative, that the outlook for energy prices remains uncertain in a world of heightened geopolitical tension, while wage pressures as a result of exceptionally low unemployment – there are 1.4 vacancies per unemployed person in the US, for example - may yet exert further upwards pressure.

The good news is that corporate balance sheets look very healthy, with profit margins not showing any signs of a looming recession. Indeed, the Societe Generale economist said his next briefing could potentially be titled ‘recession delayed indefinitely’.

Whatever lies ahead, it’s clear that technology and innovation will be critical to navigating the ebb and flow of disinflation. Innovation can help configure products and services that serve up advice and support at scale to customers still reeling from turmoil of recent years, said Francesca Carlesi, Chief Executive Officer, Revolut UK.

Indeed, the capacity for digital technologies to drive efficiencies, reduce costs and deliver on multiple agendas, be it support to vulnerable customers, sustainability or fighting fraud, means sustained investment in innovation is essential throughout the economic cycle.